National Hurricane Center issues State of Hurricane Irma update

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A National Ocean Service station on Molasses Reef, Florida recently recorded a sustained wind speed of 66 mph (105 km/h) with a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).  Key West International Airport just measured a sustained wind speed of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117 km/h).

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 81.3 West. Irma is moving slowly northwestward toward the lower Florida Keys at near 6 mph (9 km/h).

A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected through late Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida Keys during the next several hours, and then move near or along the west coast of Florida this afternoon through Monday morning.  Irma should then move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Irma is forecast to restrengthen a little more while it moves through the Straits of Florida and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).  A private anemometer at Marathon Key, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 88 mph (141 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 931 mb (27.49 inches).

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ftCaptiva to

Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft

Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys… 5 to 10 ft

Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay… 5 to 8 ft

North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay… 3 to 5 ft

South Santee River to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft

Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft

Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet…2 to 4 ft

North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and  destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northwestern Bahamas…3 to 6 ft

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning in the next several hours, and in the northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Southern Cuba…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Western Bahamas…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

The Florida Keys…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.

The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina…4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western NorthCarolina…4 to 8 inches.

Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through Sunday night,mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida peninsula.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricanepasses over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when theeye moves away.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast ofthe United States.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

About the author

Avatar of Juergen T Steinmetz

Juergen T Steinmetz

Juergen Thomas Steinmetz has continuously worked in the travel and tourism industry since he was a teenager in Germany (1977).
He founded eTurboNews in 1999 as the first online newsletter for the global travel tourism industry.

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