Russians visitors are avoiding Turkey – and Israel tourists may be standing by to take their place soon – but, of course, it’s not all about travel and tourism between Israel, Turkey and Russia.
Turkey and Israel have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to re-establish the diplomatic ties that were suspended five years ago.
โBoth sides have something to gain from this, thereโs no doubt about that,โ says Louis Fishman, a history professor at Brooklyn College with expertise on both Turkey and Israel. He calls the rapprochement โhuge.โ
According to various media reports, the new agreement between Turkey and Israel, which has not been officially confirmed, will normalize diplomatic relations, including the return of withdrawn ambassadors.
Under the agreement, the Israeli government will reportedly contribute $20 million to a fund to be divided among the families of the ten Turkish activists killed during a fight with Israeli commandoes boarding the Mavi Marmara in 2010. The ship had set out to break Israelโs blockade of the Gaza Strip.
In exchange, Turkey will cancel any current or future legal claims against members of the Israeli Defense Forces. Additionally, Ankara will limit the Turkey-based activities of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist organization which controls Gaza, and expel senior Hamas member Saleh Al-Aruri from Istanbul.
Turkish Prime Minister (now president) Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan at the time called the incident an act of state terrorism and withdrew Turkeyโs ambassador, downgraded diplomatic ties, and suspended military cooperation. Relations between the two countries had already started to degenerate before the incident, after Erdoฤan and other Turkish politicians sharply criticized Israeli actions during its 2008-2009 military operation in the Gaza Strip.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally apologized to Erdoฤan in March 2013, though relations remained poor. Erdoฤan referred to Zionism as โa crime against humanity,โ in 2013, and in 2014 called Israeli politicians โworse than Hitler,โ accusing them of genocide in the Gaza Strip.
Turkey and Israel have historically had close ties, and the more recent sour relations stood in stark contrast to the early years of Turkeyโs ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). In 2006, the Israeli Foreign Ministry described their relationship as โperfect.โ
Even during the downturn in relations, trade between the two countries actually grew, reaching over $5.6 billion in 2014, a nearly 50 per cent increase from 2009.
During the still-ongoing negotiations for the current agreement, the Turkish government also reportedly requested an end to the blockade of the Gaza Strip, which many commentators call an unrealistic demand.
โFor Israel this is seen as a security issue,โ and it will therefore not budge, Professor Fishman told The Media Line.
Analysts speculate that Turkey is attempting to repair its regional relations after its unfruitful Syria policy and the deterioration of ties with Moscow following Turkeyโs downing of a Russian jet in November.
โRegional developments and challenges have been compelling Ankara to revise its foreign policy, not only with Israel, but with its neighbors, and the West as well,โ Selin Nasi, columnist with the weekly Jewish-Turkish newspaper ลalom, told The Media Line.
โTurkeyโs attempts to follow a rather independent foreign policy since the beginning of the Arab Spring despite being a middle-range power resulted in severing ties with its neighbours and the West,โ Sasi said. โTurkey has been suffering from political and diplomatic isolation in the region for quite a while. But lately, a number of steps have been taken to mend those ties.โ
The major downturn in relations with the Russian government could threaten Turkeyโs energy supplies, since it purchases more than half of its natural gas from Russia. Moscow also recently cancelled plans for the Turkish Stream pipeline.
Getting a proposed Israeli gas pipeline to Turkey off the ground could be part of Ankaraโs incentive for mending relations.
Fishman says the pipeline project, to be fed from the giant, recently-discovered Leviathan field, is โa game-changer,โ and would be difficult to implement without a mending of relations with Israel.
โThis seems like it could be a major project,โ he told The Media Line.
Nasi stresses that Israel also needs customers to sell its gas to, especially after another recently-discovered natural gas field near Egypt strikes Cairo from Israelโs list of potential customers.
โItโs a pressing issue for Israel to find alternative markets,โ she said.
Fishman says a further incentive for Turkey to normalize relations with Israel is to increase its standing with the West, in particular, with the United States.
โTurkey will be seen as a country thatโs moving forward,โ he said. โTies with Israel go far with Washington,โ which may turn a blind eye when it comes to Turkeyโs costly war with the militant Kurdistan Workersโ Party (PKK) in the southeast.
Ankaraโs desire for a rapprochement with Israel may also be a factor in recent efforts to improve its relationship with Turkeyโs 17,000-strong Jewish community.
On December 6, the last day of Hanukkah, a menorah-lighting ceremony was publicly held in Istanbul for the first time in the history of the Turkish republic. In January, Holocaust victims were mourned in a much larger than usual ceremony. In February, the 768 Jewish refugees who died near Istanbul in the 1942 sinking of the ship, Struma, were commemorated officially for the first time. In March, a major restoration of the Great Synagogue in Edirne was completed.
โItโs a very good move to win the hearts and minds of the Jewish community and to polish Turkeyโs image as a tolerant Muslim country,โ Nasi said.
However, there is still a significant problem with anti-Semitism in the country.
โEspecially at times of conflict between Israel and Turkey, the loyalty of Jewish people towards the state is questioned ever more. There is a widespread misperception of Turkish Jews holding dual citizenships, voting at the Israeli elections and even being exempt from military service,โ according to Nasi. But, she added, โNone of these reflect the truth, of course.โ
Hate speech, often from politicians and media outlets, is also of concern.
โThere is an ambivalence on behalf of the government regarding hate speech and punishment of those involved,โ Nasi said.
She expresses the belief that a rapprochement with Israel is a very positive step for Turkeyโs Jewish community, while stressing that she doesnโt officially speak for them.
โIt does affect us,โ she said. โWeโre hopeful and weโre looking forward to normalization of ties between the two countries.โ
Nasi says it makes good strategic sense for Turkey to mend ties with Israel, and it will be politically easier now that the end of the election season until 2019 reduces anti-Israeli rhetoric. โFrom my point of view,โ she said, โright now conditions are perfect for the two countries to start normalization,โ so long as they can reach an agreement on the Gaza embargo.
However, Nasi says relations will remain fragile due to certain political realities in both countries.
โAs long as the Israeli-Palestinian issue remains unsolved and the Islamist-oriented ideological core prevails in Turkey, bilateral ties in my opinion will remain vulnerable to a new crisis,โ she said. โThatโs the bottom line.โ