India monsoon withdraws ahead of schedule as rainfall deficit rises

The overall monsoon is averaging 14 percent below the normal rainfall across India and a faster-than-normal withdrawal from northern and central India will further worsen the deficit in the coming weeks.

High pressure building over Pakistan and Afghanistan has sent a push of dry air southeast across India, recently suppressing rainfall from Gujarat eastward through northern Maharashtra into Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar.

Monsoon rains typically continue in many of these areas through the first half of October. While a brief push of moisture to the north late this week into next week could bring some rainfall back to areas from Chhattisgarh to eastern Bihar, these areas are expected to remain below normal for seasonal rainfall.

Most areas from eastern Gujarat to Uttar Pradesh have received 10 to 50 percent below the normal rainfall during this monsoon season, and little or no additional rainfall is expected as dry air continues to pour in from the northwest in the coming weeks.

Daily downpours will continue across southern India through next week, which is common for this time of the year.

The withdrawal of the monsoon typically does not reach areas from southern Karnataka through southern and eastern Andhra Pradesh until Nov. 1, and the the timing of the withdrawal will likely be near normal this year.