Tropics may come alive in Western Atlantic next week

Residents and people on vacation along the Southeast coast of the United States beware. Waters from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to Bermuda will remain the most likely to spawn one or more tropical systems in the Atlantic basin into early August.

Slow-Moving Storms to Produce Flood Threat for Florida

The combination of a stalled front, warm waters and occasional light winds aloft could be enough to allow a tropical system to take shape. This system could potentially unload heavy rain and gusty winds across part of the Southeast U.S. coastal areas.

According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, “The disorganized area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms [associated with the front] might stay over warm water long enough for weak tropical development.”

However, quick development in this area into the first part of next week seems unlikely.

Conditions may become more favorable for tropical development toward the end of July.

“We suspect that strong winds aloft over the region will diminish next week, which could be enough to spur on development,” Kottlowski said.

A tropical could form just about anywhere from the northeast Gulf to southwest of Bermuda.

“It is too early to say for sure where any system that develops will track,” Kottlowski said. “Once we get into next week and actually see specifically where a system forms we will have a much better idea where it might drift.”

By the first weekend of August, steering winds could change to more of a south to north configuration along the Atlantic Coast. This could cause any system that forms in the near-shore western Atlantic or northeastern Gulf to make a northward run along the Atlantic Seaboard with increasing forward speed.

Regardless of tropical depression or storm formation, the stagnant pattern will deliver drenching and locally gusty thunderstorms to part of the Southeastern United States coast.

The frequent downpours will settle over Florida during the last days of July.

Should a tropical system or two develop next week, potential impacts could include rough surf and strong rip currents in the coastal areas and large swells and gusty winds offshore.