The Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) asked all of its member companies to register as survey monitors. JATA then conducted a quarterly Survey of Travel Market Trends involving 532 registered companies. These are the results of the 2nd quarter (July-September) survey.
Overseas travel Diffusion Index (DI) grew 5 points over the -40 level of June and reached -35
General travel agencies, in-house agencies, and OTAs enjoyed an increase, while travel companies offering overseas tours saw a drop in demand. Hawaii (0) maintained its leading position. Asia (-2), Oceania (-13) improved their rankings. South Korea (-46) continued to improve. Europe (-71) was in decline. Business/technical visits, despite the decreased demand, stayed in a high position. The senior market showed no significant change.
During the third quarter, overseas travel DI is expected to increase by 4 points, reaching -31. In the fourth quarter, it will grow up to -29. In the third quarter, overseas-tour-selling travel agencies, general travel agencies, and first-tier retailers are expected to recover. Asia will move to a high-ranking position, and in six months, general travel agencies will enjoy continued recovery. Europe will improve its ranking, too.
Domestic travel DI grew 3 points over the previous quarter (-13) and reached -10
In-house travel agencies and first-tier retailers showed an outstanding growth.Hokkaido (+5) remained strong. Tokyo (+3) stepped up into the red, and Kyoto, Osaka, and Kobe (+3) kept on the recovery track. Kyushu (-36) which suffered a decline after the Kumamoto earthquake, grew remarkably, while Hokuriku (-9) continued on the downward track.
In the next quarter, domestic travel is expected to reach 0 after climbing up 10 points. In the fourth quarter of this year, it will increase 1 point and get to -9. During the next quarter, except for in-house travel agencies, all categories of travel agencies will see an increase in their business. Hokkaido is expected to decline sharply, with Kyoto, Osaka, and Kobe seeing a one-digit growth but still show a downward trend. Kyushu will recover gradually. In the last quarter of this year, Hokkaido will decline sharply.
The Survey of Travel Market Trends is designed to grasp trends in the travel market based on responses to questions on current conditions and those anticipated over the next three months. The survey asks participating companies to rate their sales results for each destination and customer segment by choosing from three categories: “good,” “average,” and “poor.” For items outside their business scope, respondents select “do not handle.” Each share of “good,” “average,” and “poor” is then divided respectively by the denominator, which is equal to the total number of responses minus the “do not handle” (including “no reply”) responses. Finally, each share is processed into the Diffusion Index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of “poor” from the percentage of “good.”
The highest possible index figure is +100, and the lowest is -100. In FY 2016, online travel agencies (OTAs) will be included in the market trends survey with information/outlooks for the following two quarters. The 3rd quarter survey will provide data from travel companies handling inbound tours to Japan. The survey will include the trends in the inbound tourism to Japan, too.