GBTA 2015 Global Travel Price Outlook predicts increases

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Written by Linda Hohnholz

The GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association, has released a new joint 2015 Global Travel Price Outlook report with Carlson Wagonlit Travel.

The GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association, has released a new joint 2015 Global Travel Price Outlook report with Carlson Wagonlit Travel. The report gives an early indication of what businesses can expect in 2015, helping them plan ahead during the upcoming budgeting period.

The report found that demand from emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil (key players in the growing BRIC segment) and improved economic growth in advanced economies, combined with limited advances in travel supply, will result in an upward pressure on rates, particularly in high-demand travel markets. The study also shows that travel managers are prepared for this, however, with those surveyed by GBTA are expecting airfares to increase among all categories due to consolidation in major markets.

โ€œTravel managers expect price increases next year across the board on travel categories including airfares, hotel room rates and rental car rates,โ€ Joseph Bates, GBTA Foundation vice president of research, said in a statement. โ€œRisks to the forecast–including the escalating Ukranian crisis; declining European inflation; burgeoning debt in China; and oil price shocks–could potentially have a negative influence on travel demand and pricing, however, so travel managers are advised to consider contingencies for these risks in their planning.โ€

The 2015 Global Travel Price Outlook is split by category: Air; hotel; ground; and meetings & events, making for easy comparison across regions.

Air

With rising demand, favorable cost structures and slowly expanding capacity, airfares are expected to rise gradually through 2015, by as much as 2.2 percent, although low-cost carriers are limiting price increases in some regions.

Latin America will see the highest price increases of any region advancing 3.5 percent, while price growth in Europe will be much more modest. Expect the growth in traffic among low-cost carriers to lead to diminished pricing power of many legacy carriers in Asia Pacific and North American air prices to be driven by airline consolidation and falling capacity.

Hotel

Hotel suppliers will be in a better negotiating position than they have been for some time in 2015, due in part to stronger demand and investor interest, and favorable capital costs. This improved outlook could lead to greater pressure on negotiated rates for travel managers and buyers, and globally, prices are expected to rise by as much as 2.6 percent.

Price growth will be led by Latin America, where we expect a 6.3 percent increase in managed rates. Hotel prices in North American and Asia Pacific will see moderate growth, while hotel rates throughout EMEA will grow slower than the global average throughout 2015.

Ground

In contrast to the air and hotel sectors, the ground transportation industry has an abundance of supply. With industry consolidation and strong competition, global prices are expected to remain flat throughout 2015.

The trend will be similar across all regions, except Latin America, with moderate price growth of 2 percent expected in 2015 based on generally high travel demand throughout the region.

Meetings & Events

Compliance will remain a concern for the meetings & events sector next year, regardless of industry or geography. While there are some exceptions by country, there are several trends expected across the industry in 2015, including a rise in the use of social technology.

GBTA also predicted that there will be more domestic meetings and shorter booking lead times across the globe in 2015. Mid-price hotels offering core meetings & events services will be most popular.

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Avatar of Linda Hohnholz

Linda Hohnholz

Editor in chief for eTurboNews based in the eTN HQ.

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