A new tropical wave has emerged off of the African coast and could develop into an organized system by the end of the week and into the weekend.
If a new system does form, it’ll interrupt the recent quiet pattern that has ruled across the Atlantic. The last system to form was Hurricane Bertha back in the beginning of August.
Current satellite imagery shows a a few areas of convective showers and thunderstorms near a weak center of low pressure.
Rapid development in the short term is unlikely. The best time for strengthening will likely occur towards the end of the week when it moves into more favorable conditions.
Dry air and moderate shear currently stand in the way and will hinder the system over at least the next 24 to 48 hours. However, much more favorable conditions will greet the wave later this week.
“If it can hold together as it reaches the Caribbean later this week or this weekend, atmospheric conditions are not as dry and strengthening will be possible,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.
AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski agrees. “There is a chance this low pressure area could evolve into an organized tropical system by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Saturday,” said Kottlowski.
As the wave moves farther west, warmer water temperatures will promote strengthening.
Only two systems have formed in the Atlantic so far this season. Arthur came to life on July 1st while Bertha formed on August 1st.
If this new wave were to form into a named system, it would acquire the name Cristobal.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologists will continue to monitor the wave through the week.
Meanwhile, the Pacific is slowly falling back into a quiet pattern after a couple large systems formed last week.
Iselle brought heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of Hawaii last week. Julio continues to churn north of Hawaii, although no direct interaction with Hawaii is expected. Rough surf will occur across the northern facing shores early this week though.
WHAT TO TAKE AWAY FROM THIS ARTICLE:
- A new tropical wave has emerged off of the African coast and could develop into an organized system by the end of the week and into the weekend.
- “There is a chance this low pressure area could evolve into an organized tropical system by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Saturday,”.
- Dry air and moderate shear currently stand in the way and will hinder the system over at least the next 24 to 48 hours.
